New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction
The New York Mets (55-51) and Miami Marlins (46-61) continue a four-game NL East series Wednesday at 7:10 p.m. ET loanDepot park. Let's analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlinsodds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Carlos Carrasco is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He made his 2021 debut Friday and came off the 60-day injured list to throw 4 innings against the Cincinnati Reds with 1 run allowed on 3 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 4.
- Owner of a 3.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 1,246 1/3 career IP.
- Did not go more than 3 IP in any of his three rehab starts in July.
RHP Zach Thompson is the projected starter for the Marlins. Across eight starts, he is 2-4 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 through 38 2/3 IP.
- The twenty-seven-year-old rookie has benefited from a .255 batting average on balls in play and a 7.7% HR/FB rate. Thompson has also pitched through a tough schedule and hasn't yet pitched against a club ranked worse than 16th in OPS.
Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Mets -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+111) | Marlins +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Marlins 5, Mets 4
Money line (ML)
Miami won the first two games of the series. With the twin setbacks in South Beach, New York has lost three games in a row and is just 8-12 over its last 20 games.
The Marlins' wins come on the heels of a four-game losing skid. Miami is a dreadful 22-36 after playing near .500 ball through its first 49 games this season (24-25).
The pitching matchup in this game doesn't warrant a full-unit play. There is too much uncertainty in the early innings of a game featuring hurlers who have combined for 42 2/3 IP in 2021. The lean on a partial-unit play is on MIAMI (+130).
The Fish have been undone by a woeful 11-22 mark in 1-run games. A team averaging 3.93 runs per game while allowing 3.91 RPG should not be 15 games below .500.
PASS on the run line. Consider Miami (+1.5) at a price closer to -130.
The Over is 7-3 over the last 10 games between these two NL East foes in Miami.
Despite not piling up wins of late, the Mets offense is worthy of an uptick in respect. New York has clocked an above-average .759 OPS since July 1. The Mets bullpen has struggled of late and the Marlins 'pen has been BABIP-lucky of late.
BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-107).
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