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OUR OPINION: What will the flu do?


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Weekly Citizen

It seems long ago when cruise ships began avoiding the Mexican coast, and area schools were bracing for an outbreak of swine flu in Louisiana.

There were three reported cases of H1N1 flu in Ascension Parish, 16 in East Baton Rouge and 60 in Lafayette.

H1N1 flu slipped off the front burner of concerns here on May 7 when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta decided the outbreak was a mild one.

Now, more than a month later, officials are suggesting that the total of 134 swine flu cases in Louisiana may be underreported.

More people probably caught a mild case of the flu but didn’t go in to see a doctor when schools went back to normal and doctors started testing only for suspected serious cases.

Now, H1N1 is back on the public radar. U.S. officials are comparing it to a seasonal flu where 10 to 15 percent of the population will suffer a bout with the disease.

The question becomes what the swine flu will do in the fall and winter months, the traditional flu season.

Earlier this week, the World Health Organization announced that an upswing in swine flu cases in Australia and an unusual increase in severe cases in Canada might prompt the organization to declare the first global flu pandemic in over 40 years.

Thursday, WHO declared the pandemic.

So far, around the world in 73 countries, WHO said H1N1 has killed 140 people, and infected 26,563.

The virus first began in the Americas, but spread from person to person to other areas of the world, such as Australia. With the WHO declaration of the pandemic, the disease has officially taken on global proportions.

One characteristic of the current outbreak has caught everyone’s attention: H1N1 emerged as a relatively mild disease, but about half of the recorded deaths from the virus have occurred in relatively healthy people.

The pandemic declaration, or Phase 6 announcement, will have an affect on the already battered global economy. Travel will be reduced and tourism will suffer.

The current flu outbreak has seen some western countries underreporting cases.  Britain, for instance, as of this week, had nearly 700 cases, but was not testing for the virus, and therefore, is no longer reporting confirmed victims.

When tourists visit a country and catch H1N1, business suffers, but now that the pandemic is declared, pressure will be placed on individual nations to deal appropriately with their outbreaks.

WHO officials remind everyone that declaration of a pandemic does not tell us how serious a disease is. It simply indicates spread of a disease in geographic terms, and is a cause for global concern.

U.S. officials say that hopefully a vaccine for H1N1 will be ready in the fall or early winter.

In the meantime, we should all be aware that the upcoming flu season could be a mean one.

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